国内硫酸继续上涨 累计涨幅近64%

Core Viewpoint - The sulfuric acid market has experienced a significant price increase of 63.9% over two months, driven by multiple factors including costs, supply constraints, and market sentiment, with a continued upward trend expected in the short term [1][3]. Supply Side - In November, domestic sulfuric acid production capacity affected by maintenance was approximately 21.38 million tons, with concentrated repairs in key regions such as Central and East China, leading to a noticeable reduction in regional supply [3]. - The domestic sulfur market has continued to rise in December, with sulfur prices increasing significantly, driven by a 130% rise since the beginning of the year. The global sulfur supply has been disrupted due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reduced exports from Kazakhstan, resulting in a supply gap [3]. - Domestic port inventory of sulfur has decreased to 2.2 million tons, below reasonable levels, which has pressured sulfuric acid prices to rise [3]. Cost Side - The high prices of sulfur, a core raw material for sulfuric acid production (approximately 0.33 tons of sulfur is needed to produce 1 ton of sulfuric acid), have forced price increases due to cost pressures [3]. - The price of iron sulfide ore has also remained high, further supporting the cost structure for sulfuric acid production [5]. Demand Side - Coastal factories have abundant export orders, leading to some sulfuric acid resources being directed to international markets, which further squeezes domestic supply [5]. - The main downstream applications for sulfuric acid include phosphate fertilizers, titanium dioxide, and caprolactam, with caprolactam operating rates close to 80%, while phosphate diammonium has a lower operating rate of 50% [5]. Market Outlook - The sulfuric acid market is expected to maintain a trend of localized price increases, although resistance from downstream sectors may lead to a slowdown in future price hikes [5]. - Long-term attention should be given to the recovery of international sulfur supply and the release of production capacity after maintenance of sulfuric acid plants [5].