Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-15 07:55Core Insights - Recent strong quarterly performances from companies like Nvidia, Oracle, and Broadcom have not translated into stock price gains, raising concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment boom [1][3] - Market sentiment is at a "critical moment," with investors questioning whether high AI development and training costs can yield sufficient commercial returns [3] Group 1: Company Performance - Oracle reported a staggering 438% year-over-year increase in remaining performance obligations, reaching $523 billion, with approximately $300 billion stemming from long-term computing power agreements with OpenAI [3] - Oracle's significant capital expenditure required to support these orders is putting pressure on its cash flow, leading to the highest credit default swap prices since 2009 [3] - OpenAI is projected to consume $115 billion in funds by 2029 and may not achieve positive cash flow until 2030, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Adjustments in stocks benefiting from the AI boom are occurring not due to declining growth rates, but rather because growth rates are no longer accelerating [4] - Institutions like Bank of America, Yardeni Research, and Morgan Stanley have noted increasing skepticism regarding the high valuations of tech stocks and the expected returns from substantial AI investments [4] Group 3: Infrastructure Spending - Major tech companies, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, are expected to spend over $400 billion on capital expenditures in the next 12 months, primarily for data center construction [4] - The depreciation costs associated with the data center boom are rising rapidly, from approximately $10 billion in Q4 2023 to nearly $22 billion in the most recent quarter, with projections of reaching around $30 billion next year [4]