SK海力士内部分析曝光：DRAM缺货将持续到2028年！

Core Insights - The global memory chip market is facing a severe supply-demand imbalance, with standard DRAM supply constraints expected to last until 2028, which is more severe than UBS's previous forecast of Q1 2027 [1][7] - The surge in artificial intelligence (AI) demand is driving a "super cycle" in the memory chip market, with AI server market share projected to rise from 38% in 2025 to 53% by 2030, leading to a 24% increase in DRAM demand [2][5] Supply Side - The primary reason for the constrained standard DRAM supply is the lengthy capacity expansion cycle, with new DRAM factories taking several years to become operational, and additional capacity not expected to be released until 2028 [4] - Even utilizing existing facilities for technology transitions faces challenges, making it difficult to alleviate supply-demand imbalances in the short term [5] - Supplier inventory levels are rapidly declining, with SK Hynix's financial executive indicating that not only HBM but also DRAM and NAND capacities are sold out for next year, with some customers even pre-purchasing traditional storage chips for 2026 [5] Demand Side - The explosive growth of AI applications is reshaping the demand landscape for memory chips, with AI PC market share expected to increase from 38% to 55% by 2026, significantly raising DRAM capacity requirements per unit [5] - The NAND Flash market is also poised for growth, with server eSSD demand expected to rise by 36% year-on-year and overall NAND demand increasing by 18% [5] Price Trends - UBS predicts a 35% quarter-on-quarter increase in DDR contract prices in Q4 this year, with a further 30% increase expected in Q1 2026, alongside a 20% rise in NAND Flash contract prices [3][7] - The internal analysis from SK Hynix suggests that the supply tightness will persist until 2028, indicating that the price increase cycle for memory chips may exceed market expectations [7] Industry Impact - Major tech companies, including Apple, are expected to face cost pressures as their long-term supply agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix are set to expire in January 2026, with plans to raise storage chip prices starting next year [3][9] - SK Hynix is actively expanding capacity, with the M15X factory, focused on HBM production, set to begin full-scale production next year after two years of construction [9][11] - The company is also building advanced production facilities, including the M15X and a planned wafer fab in Yongin, to meet the growing demand for AI storage [11]