失真数据难破降息迷局，美国经济真相要等到明年？

Group 1 - The upcoming employment and inflation reports from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are expected to provide insights into the economic situation, but analysts warn that the delayed data may be biased and only partially reflect the economy's health [1][2] - The Federal Reserve recently voted to lower interest rates to a three-year low, revealing deep divisions within the central bank regarding whether to prioritize a weak job market or rising inflation [1][2] - The unprecedented government shutdown has exacerbated uncertainty, as data collection was paused, leading to delays and cancellations of key reports, complicating policymakers' understanding of the economy [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming employment data will cover November and part of October, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will only include November data, with October's report canceled [2] - Analysts indicate that the forthcoming employment and inflation data may contain biases due to the shutdown and necessary methodological adjustments, making it difficult to draw significant conclusions from the data for October, November, or December [2] - There is notable disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent and pace of potential interest rate cuts, particularly influenced by employment data, which could significantly impact future monetary policy [2]