吴晓求：消费扩张需要深度重构三个核心函数

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for China's per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, emphasizing the need for new economic growth drivers and ongoing financial reforms [1][14] - The transition from a "shortage economy" to a "surplus economy" necessitates a fundamental shift in governance logic, focusing on structural upgrades and technological advancements rather than mere scale expansion [4][18] Economic Characteristics - The "15th Five-Year" period will be characterized by significant historical changes, including a global technological revolution and a historic leap in China's economic structure [3][17] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to global value added is nearing 30%, maintaining the world's largest scale for 15 consecutive years, indicating strong supply-side capabilities [4][18] Consumption Dynamics - In a "surplus economy," consumption is viewed as a key force for maintaining economic balance, influenced by income, wealth, and social security [4][16] - Approximately 60% to 70% of household wealth is concentrated in real estate, leading to potential consumption contraction if property prices decline [5][19] Financial System Reform - The core task of financial reform during the "15th Five-Year" period is to adapt to the transition from a shortage to a surplus economy through innovation and openness [7][22] - There is a need for a robust, liquid, and high-credit-rated government bond market, which is essential for the internationalization of the RMB and the establishment of an international financial center [9][24] Capital Market Evolution - The capital market is expected to play a pivotal role in the economic ecosystem, transitioning from a financing market to an investment market that provides wealth management functions [10][25] - Enhancing the quality of listed companies is crucial, as they are the foundation of the capital market, and a strict delisting system is necessary to ensure market health [11][26] Regulatory Environment - A transparent regulatory framework is vital for rebuilding the capital market ecosystem, with a focus on increasing penalties for fraudulent activities to restore investor confidence [12][27] - The government should prioritize social security and public services over industrial investment funds to effectively release consumer purchasing power [6][21]