Ultima Markets市场重新定价宽松预期：美元暴跌、黄金飙升

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The global market continued to rebound after the FOMC meeting, driven by interpretations of the Fed's accommodative policy, deteriorating labor data, and liquidity injections, leading to a decline in the dollar and an increase in gold prices [1] - The Fed's hawkish rate cut was accompanied by dovish signals, with Powell emphasizing a softening labor market and the expectation that future rate hikes are no longer the baseline scenario, heightening market expectations for continued accommodative policies [1] - Following the FOMC decision, traders increased bets on larger rate cuts in 2026, resulting in a significant drop in the dollar and boosting risk appetite [2] Group 2: Labor Market Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 236K, significantly higher than the market expectation of 220K, marking the largest weekly increase since 2020 [2] - The previous value was revised to 192K, highlighting the acceleration in the labor market's loss of momentum, which exceeded the Fed's expectations [2] Group 3: Liquidity Measures - The Fed announced it would resume short-term Treasury bill purchases at a rate of approximately $40 billion per month, with the first operation size being $8.167 billion [2] - This move aims to stabilize short-term funding markets and restore declining reserve balances, ensuring that policy rates remain within the target range [2] - Although not officially labeled as quantitative easing, the liquidity effects are similar, leading to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and systemic liquidity improvement [2] Group 4: Dollar and Gold Outlook - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) has decisively broken below a recent bullish consolidation range, indicating a return to a bearish trend, with the index dropping to 98.00, the lowest level since October [2] - Gold has broken out of a long-term consolidation range of 4,175–4,235, benefiting from the weaker dollar and expectations of declining yields [5] - Technical analysis suggests that as long as XAU/USD remains above 4,235, short-term declines may present buying opportunities aligned with the upward trend [8] Group 5: Market Focus - The market is closely monitoring the continuation of the "Fed pivot" trade and the initiation of the first liquidity operation, with key economic data such as the Eurozone CPI and speeches from Fed officials expected to influence market direction [8]