Piper Sandler Cuts Price Target on Constellation Brands (STZ) as it Faces Headwinds From GLP-1 Weight Loss Drugs

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) is facing challenges that have led to a downgrade in its price target by Piper Sandler, primarily due to the impact of GLP-1 weight loss pharmaceuticals on alcohol sales and increased competition from higher alcohol by volume beverages [1][3]. Group 1: Price Target and Ratings - Piper Sandler has cut its price target for Constellation Brands from $155 to $135 while maintaining a Neutral rating [1]. - The downgrade is attributed to the anticipated negative impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs on US alcohol sales, which could create an additional annual headwind of 30-70 basis points [1]. Group 2: Sales and Volume Growth Estimates - Constellation Brands has revised its full fiscal year guidance, lowering its comparable earnings per share expectation to a range of $11.30 to $11.60, down from $12.60 to $12.90 [4]. - The company now expects organic net sales to decline by 4% to 6% in fiscal 2026, a significant change from the previous estimate of 1% growth to a 2% decline [4]. - Piper Sandler has reduced its estimate of beer volume growth for Constellation's fiscal fourth quarter of 2026 by approximately 1.0 percentage points and by about 1.5 percentage points for each quarter starting in fiscal first quarter of 2027 [3]. Group 3: Market Context - The alcohol industry is experiencing a negative trend, with beer sales already facing a decline of 4.7% [1]. - The introduction of higher alcohol by volume beverages is expected to exert additional pressure on volume sales, potentially resulting in a percentage point or more of volume strain [3]. Group 4: Company Overview - Constellation Brands, Inc. produces a variety of alcoholic beverages, including beer, wine, and spirits, and is known for its popular brands such as Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi Winery, and Kim Crawford [5].