Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing fluctuations near a three-month low, influenced by the recent weak performance of the USD and ongoing assessments of the US interest rate outlook for 2026 [1] Group 1: USD Performance - The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, is trading cautiously near an eight-week low of 98.13, with limited overall volatility [3] - Market expectations indicate a 64.3% probability of at least two interest rate cuts by US authorities by the end of 2026, although the dot plot suggests a decline in the federal funds rate to 3.4% by that time [4] - Current market sentiment towards a more accommodative US interest rate policy is linked to a weak labor market, with investors awaiting the November non-farm payroll data for insights into the employment situation [4] Group 2: CAD Performance - The Canadian dollar has shown strong performance against major trading partners in recent days, attributed to market expectations regarding the Bank of Canada's policy [4] - The Bank of Canada is not expected to implement further interest rate cuts in the short term, as indicated in its recent monetary policy statement, which suggests current rates are appropriate for maintaining inflation near the 2% target [4] - Key economic data, specifically the November Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI), is set to be released, with market predictions indicating a core CPI year-on-year increase of 2.4%, up from 2.2% in October, which will significantly impact CAD exchange rate movements [5]
TMGM外汇：美元兑加元低位盘整 市场静待美加关键数据指引
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-15 08:55