长城宏观：布局春季行情，关注三大方向

Group 1: Market Trends - The market continues to favor technology growth, while cyclical and consumer sectors are experiencing a pullback [1] - AI-related optical modules and chips are gaining strength, alongside a rise in power demand for data centers and smart grids [1] - Commercial aerospace remains highly active, while sectors like carbon black, phosphorous chemicals, methanol, real estate, and home textiles are lagging [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference in China outlined five new understandings and eight key tasks to stabilize and improve the economy [2] - The meeting emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand, aiming to stabilize investment and reduce real estate inventory [2] - November's core CPI in China rose to 0.7%, while PPI fell to -2.2%, indicating pressures from food prices and international oil prices [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%, with expectations of further easing due to labor market weaknesses [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A cross-year investment strategy is being initiated, with expectations of increased aggressiveness in investments [4] - The market is anticipated to improve liquidity and trading activity as institutional funds return, marking an important window for spring market positioning [4] - The focus is on large-cap growth stocks and value stocks benefiting from insurance capital allocations [4] Group 4: Sector Focus - The technology sector is favored, particularly in AI applications and infrastructure, with attention on Hong Kong stocks in internet, media, and computing [5] - The financial sector, including brokers and insurance, is expected to benefit from deeper capital market reforms [5] - Consumer stocks, particularly in agriculture, hospitality, and tourism, are seen as attractive due to low valuations and improving market conditions [5]