国际航协：航空公司盈利预期稳健 2026年净利率3.9%

Core Viewpoint - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts a robust recovery in the airline industry, with projected net profits reaching $41 billion in 2026, despite ongoing supply chain challenges and geopolitical tensions [1] Financial Outlook - The global airline industry is expected to achieve total revenues of $1.054 trillion in 2026, a 4.5% increase from $1.008 trillion in 2025 [1] - Passenger ticket revenue is projected to reach $751 billion in 2026, up 4.8% from $716 billion in 2025, driven by a 4.9% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) [2] - Cargo revenue is anticipated to grow to $158 billion in 2026, a 2.1% increase from $155 billion in 2025, supported by ongoing demand for time-sensitive goods and e-commerce [2] Cost Structure - Fuel costs are expected to decrease slightly to $252 billion in 2026 from $253 billion in 2025, with Brent crude oil prices projected to fall to $62 per barrel [4] - Non-fuel costs are projected to rise to $729 billion in 2026, a 5.8% increase from $689 billion in 2025, primarily due to rising labor costs and aging fleets [5] - Labor costs have become the largest expense, accounting for 28% of total costs, driven by a tight labor market and increased wages [5] Profitability Metrics - The industry is expected to maintain a net profit margin of 3.9% in 2026, consistent with 2025, while operating profit is projected to rise to $72.8 billion, up from $67 billion in 2025 [1] - The return on invested capital (ROIC) is forecasted to be 6.8% in 2026, remaining below the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.2% [1] Market Dynamics - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historic high of 83.8% in 2026, reflecting strong demand for air travel [1] - The total number of passengers is projected to reach 5.2 billion in 2026, a 4.4% increase from 2025 [1] - Air cargo is highlighted as a resilient sector, adapting to changes in global trade dynamics and benefiting from e-commerce and semiconductor transport demands [1]