漫谈量子计算及加密货币即将面临的安全威胁

Group 1: Quantum Computing and Its Threat to Cryptocurrency - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to three scientists for their work in quantum computing, highlighting the technology's potential impact on the public perception of quantum computing and its implications for cryptocurrency security [1] - Quantum computing is currently at a critical juncture, transitioning from theoretical concepts to practical applications, but remains in the "noisy intermediate-scale quantum" (NISQ) phase, limiting its ability to execute large-scale algorithms due to environmental noise [2] - Major players in the quantum computing industry, such as Quantinuum and IBM, have set ambitious goals for the development of logical qubits, with plans to achieve 100 logical qubits by 2027 and 2000 by 2033, indicating a long-term process towards fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) [2] Group 2: Perception of Quantum Threats in the Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market has developed a consensus regarding the theoretical risks posed by quantum computing, particularly concerning the vulnerability of elliptic curve digital signature algorithms (ECDSA) [4] - Despite acknowledging the risks, the market remains generally optimistic and somewhat desensitized to the quantum threat, partly due to past experiences of survival and the belief that post-quantum cryptography is being developed [4] - There is a fragmented approach to addressing quantum threats within the cryptocurrency sector, with some projects beginning to implement upgrade interfaces, but lacking a comprehensive defense strategy [4][5] Group 3: The Asymmetrical Nature of Quantum Threats - The unique aspect of quantum threats lies in their asymmetry, where attackers can prepare long before defenders can react, allowing them to collect public key data now for future attacks when quantum computing capabilities mature [5] - An example of this threat was illustrated by the LuBian mining pool hack, where attackers exploited a vulnerability in the random number generator to steal approximately $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, indicating a potential long-term strategy rather than immediate profit [6] Group 4: Challenges in Defense Mechanisms - The cryptocurrency community faces significant challenges in upgrading protocols to defend against quantum threats, as any major changes require extensive technical development and consensus-building [7] - The inability to predict when quantum computing will reach a critical threshold creates a dilemma for defenders, who must begin preparations immediately despite the lengthy upgrade processes [8] Group 5: Systemic Risks in Decentralized Finance - The integration of decentralized finance (DeFi) with traditional finance has created a complex ecosystem that is highly susceptible to systemic risks, as seen in the October 2025 market crash that liquidated over $19 billion in positions [9][11] - The emergence of new stablecoins and complex financial products has further complicated the risk landscape, with high leverage potentially leading to catastrophic failures during market volatility [10] Group 6: The Urgency of Quantum Threats - The threat from quantum computing is not just theoretical; it could lead to systemic collapse even before the technology is fully realized, as market confidence can be easily shaken by news of quantum advancements [14][15] - The cryptocurrency sector is exploring various defensive strategies, including the establishment of post-quantum cryptography standards and phased migration plans, but faces significant challenges in implementation due to decentralized governance inefficiencies [15][16]