百利好晚盘分析：短线快速跳水 长期依然看好

Gold - Last week, gold experienced a rapid decline near the close, dropping nearly $100, which significantly impacted the short-term trend structure, but this may just be a result of profit-taking leading to increased short-term selling; long-term outlook for gold remains positive [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was perceived as hawkish, yet the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both reached historical highs post-announcement, indicating that the market does not view the Fed as overly hawkish; the Fed's monetary policy is expected to continue easing [1] - The Fed's announcement of a $40 billion monthly purchase of short-term government bonds is interpreted as a signal for a new quantitative easing phase, with potential purchases of about $500 billion in short-term bonds next year, indicating aggressive liquidity injection [1] - Quantitative easing is expected to devalue purchasing power, potentially leading to high inflation in the U.S., which would benefit precious metals like gold [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, indicating an expanding upward structure and a long-term bullish outlook; short-term support is noted at $4,325 [1] Oil - Last week, oil continued its downward trend, but signs of a slowdown in the decline suggest a potential short-term rebound; however, the medium to long-term outlook remains constrained by oversupply [2] - If the Russia-Ukraine conflict is resolved, Russian oil could quickly return to the market, significantly impacting oil prices; however, recent talks between U.S. and Russian officials did not yield a compromise, and sanctions on Russian oil exports are expected to remain in place [2] - Even if Russian oil does not return to the international market soon, the supply-demand imbalance persists, with production gaps left by Russia likely to be filled by non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S. and Brazil; by 2026, the global daily surplus of oil is projected to reach 4.09 million barrels, equivalent to 4% of global demand [2] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, with significant support at previous low points, but the downward trend remains unchanged; short-term focus should be on resistance around $58 [2] Dollar Index - Following the Federal Reserve's December meeting, the dollar index has continued to weaken, reaching a new low since early October; this trend may persist due to the Fed's monetary policy and the appreciation potential of non-U.S. currencies [3] - Despite Powell's emphasis on a higher threshold for further rate cuts, market expectations for continued rate cuts in 2026 have not dissipated; potential leadership changes at the Fed could lead to a more accommodative policy direction, further weakening the dollar [3] Non-U.S. Currencies - The appreciation of non-U.S. currencies is a significant factor in the dollar's weakness; the Bank of Japan's governor has indicated a clear signal for potential interest rate hikes, suggesting a possible increase from 0.50% to 0.75% [4] - The Eurozone also has limited room for further rate cuts, contributing to the dynamic where non-U.S. currencies rise as the dollar falls, potentially expanding the dollar index's decline [4] - Technically, the dollar index's daily chart shows a double top breakout with bearish divergence in moving averages, indicating a downward trend; short-term focus may be on resistance around 68.56 [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a series of small bearish and bullish candles, indicating weak rebound strength, and may be entering a medium-term C-wave decline [5] - The 4-hour chart suggests the completion of an upward structure, with short-term resistance to be monitored around 50,410 [5] Copper - Copper's daily chart shows a large bearish candle, forming an engulfing pattern, indicating a potential medium-term peak [6] - The 1-hour chart suggests the completion of an upward structure, likely leading to a descending ABC pattern; short-term resistance is noted at $5.36 [6] Market Overview - The U.S. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated that if selected to lead the Fed, he would consider Trump's policy opinions, but the Fed's rate decisions will remain independent [7] - Japanese central bank officials may begin selling ETF holdings as early as next month, a process expected to take decades [7] - Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed abandoning Ukraine's NATO membership aspirations during negotiations with U.S. envoys regarding a potential peace agreement for the Russia-Ukraine conflict [7] Upcoming Events - On December 15, at 23:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on economic outlook [8]