国元国际：维持安踏体育“买入”评级 目标价98.0港元

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports (02020) maintains a high level of prosperity in outdoor apparel, professional sports, and women's apparel sectors, with unique brand operation and growth strategies, suggesting continued attention to the company [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Anta's sales achieved single-digit positive growth year-on-year, with a stable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - The company revised its full-year revenue forecast for the Anta brand from +MSD to +LSD, while maintaining FILA's growth target at +MSD and other brands at +40% [2] - Other brands experienced significant growth, with a combined year-on-year increase of approximately 55%, including Descente at 30%, Kolon at 70%, and MAIA at 45% [2] Group 2: Profitability and Brand Matrix - The profitability contribution from professional and outdoor brands is increasing, with operating profit margins expected to rise from 2.1% in 2020 to 18.4% in 2024, and further to 24.3% by H1 2025 [3] - The company acquired the Jack Wolfskin brand to expand its outdoor brand matrix and plans to revitalize it over the next 3-5 years [3] - A joint venture with the Korean fashion platform Musinsa was established to explore opportunities in the fashion sector, enhancing the overall brand matrix [3] Group 3: Revenue Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 783.1 billion, 867.2 billion, and 942.3 billion yuan for FY25E to FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of +10.6%, +10.7%, and +8.7% respectively [4] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 132.5 billion, 152.3 billion, and 168.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of +11.2%, +14.9%, and +10.9% (excluding equity investment income) [4] - The target price is set at 98.0 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 18.8 times for FY25E and a static PE of about 16 times, indicating a projected price increase of 21.8% from the current price [4]