Guan Cha Zhe Wang·2025-12-15 09:20Core Viewpoint - Vanke, once considered the least likely to default among real estate companies, is now on the brink of default due to failed debt extension proposals, leading to a significant market reaction [1][4]. Group 1: Debt Extension Proposals - On December 15, Vanke's three debt extension proposals failed to receive the required 90% approval, resulting in a five-day grace period to address the situation [1][4]. - The first proposal was rejected entirely, while the second proposal, which included guarantees from Shenzhen state-owned enterprises, received 83.4% support but still fell short of the threshold [3][4]. - The third proposal, which was a compromise, garnered only 18.95% support, indicating a lack of confidence among creditors [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the failed proposals, Vanke's stock and bonds experienced significant declines, with the domestic bond "21 Vanke 02" dropping by 24.7% and Vanke A shares falling by 2.99% [1]. - Just five days prior, Vanke's stock had surged, with A shares hitting a daily trading volume of 3.2 billion yuan and Hong Kong shares rising by 13.17% due to initial optimism surrounding the debt proposals [2]. Group 3: Future Actions and Implications - Vanke has initiated a five-day grace period to negotiate a solution, with a deadline set for December 20, after which a substantial default could occur [4][5]. - The company is also seeking to extend the maturity of another domestic bond to alleviate upcoming repayment pressures, indicating ongoing financial challenges [4][5]. - A second bondholder meeting is scheduled for December 18, where the potential for enhanced guarantees will be discussed, which could influence the outcome of the debt restructuring [5].