穿越经济周期的压舱石，黄金ETF长期配置逻辑

Core Viewpoint - In the context of a shifting global economic landscape and increasing market volatility, investors are increasingly focusing on the stability and risk resistance of their asset portfolios. Gold, as a time-tested hard currency, plays a crucial role as a "ballast" in asset allocation, and the emergence of gold ETFs allows ordinary investors to conveniently capture the long-term value of gold [1]. Group 1: Economic Context and Federal Reserve Actions - On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year. Following the announcement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined, the dollar index weakened, and gold prices shifted from a decline to an increase, maintaining high volatility [1]. - The FOMC's voting results showed 9 votes in favor and 3 against, indicating a division in the committee regarding inflation pressures and economic slowdown assessments. The committee also announced a monthly purchase plan of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12 to maintain ample reserves [4]. Group 2: Gold's Unique Attributes - Gold is recognized for its strong safe-haven properties, providing stability during geopolitical conflicts, global economic crises, and unexpected market events. Unlike traditional financial assets, gold's intrinsic value is less affected by a single economy or financial system, making it a reliable asset during times of uncertainty [9]. - Gold serves as an effective hedge against inflation, as its value is closely tied to physical commodities. In environments of monetary expansion and rising inflation, gold can maintain its value, helping investors preserve purchasing power [9]. - The low correlation of gold with traditional assets enhances its appeal for risk diversification. Gold's pricing logic is distinct from that of stocks and bonds, allowing it to act independently and even provide a counterbalance during traditional asset downturns [10]. Group 3: Gold ETFs as an Investment Tool - Gold ETFs address the challenges of traditional physical gold investment, such as storage issues, high transaction barriers, and limited liquidity, making them an optimal tool for ordinary investors to engage in gold investment [12]. - Gold ETFs facilitate convenient and low-cost investment in gold, allowing investors to trade gold as easily as stocks without the burdens of physical gold ownership, such as storage and transportation costs [12]. - The high liquidity of gold ETFs supports dynamic portfolio adjustments, enabling investors to buy or sell based on market conditions without facing liquidity constraints [13]. - Gold ETFs are designed to closely track gold prices, ensuring that investors can capture long-term appreciation without the risks associated with gold-related stocks or funds [13]. Group 4: Conclusion on Gold's Role in Asset Allocation - In the current complex market environment, the focus of asset allocation has shifted from "pursuing high returns" to "achieving stable appreciation." Gold, with its safe-haven, anti-inflation, and low-correlation attributes, serves as a "ballast" for navigating economic cycles, while gold ETFs provide accessible, low-cost, and highly liquid investment options for ordinary investors [15][16].