美国三大因素主导铜价2026持续冲高？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed not only to the supply shortage caused by the landslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia but also to three key factors originating from the United States, leading to predictions that copper prices will continue to reach historical highs by 2026 [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The international price of copper has been continuously rising, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper futures reaching a peak of $11,771 per ton on December 8, marking the highest level in over 16 months [1]. - The Grasberg mine incident, which is the second-largest copper producer globally, is cited as a primary reason for the current price surge, but market analysts believe that this alone does not fully explain the dramatic increase [1]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Factors - The first factor is the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy following three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with predictions of an additional cut in 2026. This economic support is believed to positively influence copper prices, which are often seen as a barometer for global economic health [2]. - The second factor is the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), which has driven up the stock prices of major tech and semiconductor companies in the U.S. This trend is expected to have a ripple effect on global markets, including copper [2][5]. - The third factor is renewed concerns over tariffs imposed by former President Trump on copper, which had previously caused a spike in U.S. copper prices. The potential for future tariff increases has led to market speculation and adjustments [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Speculation - There is a noted correlation between the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and copper prices, indicating that investor sentiment around AI and technology is influencing copper market dynamics [5]. - The net long positions in copper futures have reached their highest level in approximately nine months, suggesting that speculators are increasingly betting on copper as they would on AI-related stocks [5]. - The inventory levels of copper in the U.S. are significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, while global inventories outside the U.S. are showing signs of shortage, contributing to the upward pressure on prices [6].