无论美联储掌门之争结局如何，贝森特才是实权拥有者？

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly under threat as political influences grow, particularly with the upcoming retirement of Chairman Jerome Powell and the potential for President Trump to reshape the leadership and policies of the Fed [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Political Influence - The impending retirement of Jerome Powell presents an opportunity for President Trump to alter the leadership of the Federal Reserve, which has faced criticism since Powell's appointment in 2018 [2]. - Scott Bessent, a key figure in the selection process, is expected to exert significant influence over the choice of Powell's successor, with speculation that Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate [2][3]. - Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly enough, indicating a desire for a more compliant Fed leadership [2][9]. Group 2: Criticism of Federal Reserve's Role - Bessent argues that the Federal Reserve has strayed from its original role, particularly during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, where it expanded its influence without sufficient democratic oversight [3][7]. - The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to $6.6 trillion, reflecting its expanded role in the economy, which has disproportionately benefited asset owners [3][6]. - Critics, including Bessent, suggest that the Fed has overestimated the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus while underestimating the impact of tax cuts and deregulation on economic growth [7]. Group 3: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The Fed's responsibilities have broadened post-2008 financial crisis, extending into areas like financial regulation and social issues, which some argue is beyond its mandate [7][8]. - There are calls to revisit the 1951 Federal Reserve-Treasury Agreement, which allowed the Fed to control its balance sheet independently, marking a significant step towards its independence [7][8]. - The Trump administration aims to align the Fed's regulatory agenda with White House priorities, including a push for lower interest rates and a shift in debt management responsibilities to the Treasury [8]. Group 4: Future Implications for the Federal Reserve - The potential loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could lead to a concentration of power in the government during future economic crises, undermining the Fed's ability to manage inflation and maintain credit health [10]. - Trust and recognition from the public are essential for the Fed to effectively control inflation and ensure financial stability, which may be compromised under the current political climate [10].