鹏华基金闫冬：有色金属行情超预期，“反内卷”重塑中期投资逻辑｜2025华夏机构投资者年会

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to perform strongly in 2025, driven by supply rigidity, emerging demand, and global inventory shifts, indicating a new cyclical logic [2][3] - The current market cycle differs significantly from past cycles characterized by supply excess leading to investment expansion and price declines, as both supply and demand sides are experiencing structural constraints [3][4] - Supply-side challenges include severe capacity bottlenecks for resource products like copper, with production costs rising and geopolitical risks complicating capacity expansion, leading to long-term supply rigidity [3][4] Group 2 - On the demand side, a strong "new narrative" is emerging, driven by trends in industries like AI and considerations of geopolitical relationships and tariff policies, resulting in a "stock siphoning" phenomenon in the U.S. [3][4] - Despite discussions of "bubbles" in high valuations for certain commodities, the fundamental changes in supply and demand dynamics suggest that a significant drop in non-ferrous metals prices is unlikely, with price levels expected to remain elevated [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping investment logic by legally regulating production capacity and aiming to control local government investment impulses, which is crucial for addressing overcapacity issues across various industries [5][6] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy, initiated in July 2025, has played a key role in rebalancing market styles, as evidenced by the significant growth of the Penghua chemical ETF from several billion to nearly 20 billion [5][6] - The policy's core approach focuses on legal frameworks to regulate market behavior, contrasting with previous reliance on administrative measures, and aims to address overcapacity issues linked to local government actions [5][6] - Although short-term investment and financing data may appear weak, the slow recovery of CPI and PPI indicates that the policy is addressing long-term fundamental issues, with confidence in achieving PPI reversal through a series of measures [6]