Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Gu Ming (01364) has become a leading brand in the industry with over 10,000 stores, leveraging regional cultivation and efficient supply chain collaboration [1][2] - The company focuses on lower-tier markets, with delivery costs below the industry average, enabling a robust expansion of its franchise system [1][2] - The report anticipates that Gu Ming has the potential to open over 40,000 stores nationwide, with a "buy" rating assigned for the first coverage [1][2] Group 2 - Gu Ming's first store was opened in 2010, and by the first half of 2025, the number of stores is expected to exceed 10,000 [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 120.4 billion, 143.2 billion, and 167.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.0%, 18.9%, and 17.0% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 25.8 billion, 28.1 billion, and 30.8 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 77.9%, 9.0%, and 9.8% respectively [2] Group 3 - The current market for ready-to-drink beverages in China is projected to exceed 600 billion yuan in 2024 and reach over 1 trillion yuan by 2027, with ready-to-drink tea expected to grow significantly [3] - The mid-range and budget segments of the ready-to-drink tea market are anticipated to have greater growth potential, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 20.8% and 20.1% from 2023 to 2028 [3] - The penetration rate of ready-to-drink beverages in lower-tier cities has shown substantial growth, with GMV compound growth rates of 28.0% and 33.2% for third-tier and fourth-tier cities from 2018 to 2023 [3] Group 4 - Gu Ming's competitive advantages include excellent supply chain management and a mature franchise management system, with nearly 80% of its stores located in second-tier and lower cities [4] - The company implements a supply chain-first approach, achieving cold chain delivery to 97% of its stores at a cost below 1% of GMV, compared to the industry average of about 2% [4] - The report suggests that the company can replicate its current store density in Zhejiang across the country, projecting a long-term store ceiling of over 40,000 [4]
开源证券：首次覆盖古茗(01364)予“买入”评级 看好其在性价比赛道及全国空白区域的增长潜力