智昇黄金原油分析：短线快速跳水 长期依然看好

Group 1: Gold Market - Last week, gold experienced a rapid decline near the close, dropping nearly $100, which significantly impacted short-term trends, but this may be attributed to profit-taking, with long-term prospects for gold remaining positive [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was perceived as hawkish, yet the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices reached all-time highs, indicating that the market does not view the Fed as overly hawkish, and further monetary easing is expected [1] - The Fed's announcement of a $40 billion monthly purchase of short-term government bonds is interpreted as a signal for a new quantitative easing phase, with potential purchases of about $500 billion next year, indicating aggressive liquidity injection [1] - Quantitative easing is expected to devalue purchasing power, potentially leading to high inflation in the U.S., which could benefit precious metals like gold [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, indicating an expanding upward structure and a long-term bullish outlook, with short-term support at $4,325 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Last week, oil prices continued to decline, but signs of a slowdown in the downtrend suggest a potential short-term rebound, although the medium to long-term outlook remains constrained by oversupply [3] - If the Russia-Ukraine conflict is resolved, Russian oil could quickly return to the market, significantly impacting oil prices; however, recent talks have not yielded a compromise, and sanctions on Russian oil are expected to remain in place [3] - Even without Russian oil returning to the market, the supply-demand imbalance persists, with production gaps left by Russia likely filled by non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S. and Brazil, leading to a projected global surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026, equivalent to 4% of global demand [3] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, with clear support at previous lows, but the downtrend remains intact; short-term traders may focus on a potential rebound, with resistance at $58 [3] Group 3: Currency Market - Following the Fed's December meeting, the U.S. dollar index has weakened, reaching a new low since early October, and may continue to decline due to the Fed's monetary policy and the appreciation potential of non-U.S. currencies [3][4] - Market expectations for continued rate cuts in 2026 persist despite Powell's emphasis on higher thresholds for further cuts, with potential leadership changes at the Fed possibly leading to more accommodative policies [4] - The Bank of Japan's recent signals for potential interest rate hikes and the lack of further rate cuts in the Eurozone are significant factors contributing to the dollar's weakness [5] - Technically, the dollar index's daily chart shows a double top breakout and bearish divergence in moving averages, indicating a downtrend; short-term traders may look for resistance at 68.56 [5] Group 4: Economic Events - The U.S. National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated that if selected to lead the Fed, he would consider Trump's policy opinions, but the Fed's rate decisions would remain independent [6] - Japanese central bank officials may begin selling ETF holdings as early as next month, a process expected to take decades [6] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed a willingness to abandon Ukraine's NATO membership in negotiations regarding a potential peace agreement with the U.S. [6]