DLS MARKETS：决议前夕日元走强，美元兑日元空头趋势能否坐实？

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has appreciated to around 155 yen per dollar, reaching a new high in over a week, reflecting investor expectations for the Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy meeting [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, with a focus on the forward guidance from Governor Kazuo Ueda for signals regarding the pace and intensity of monetary tightening through 2025 [1] - Analysts predict that the policy rate may reach 1.0% by July 2026, driven by resilient domestic economic data and persistent consumer inflation above the Bank of Japan's historical target [1] Group 2 - Political resistance to interest rate hikes appears to be diminishing, as the Suga cabinet is unlikely to oppose rate increases due to the yen's continued weakness, which has raised import costs and exacerbated inflationary pressures [1] - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has completed an initial decline to 154.34, followed by a corrective rebound to 156.93, with expectations of a new downward wave targeting 154.73 [2] - The H1 chart shows a developing downward wave with a near-term target of 154.82, followed by a potential corrective rebound to 155.45, but the main downward trend is expected to resume, pushing the exchange rate down to 153.52 [4] Group 3 - The market is betting on a significant interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, leading to a continued strengthening of the yen, while technical indicators across multiple time frames show a clear bearish structure for USD/JPY [5] - Despite the possibility of short-term corrective rebounds, the overall trend points to further weakness, with key downward targets at 154.73 on the H4 chart and 153.52 on the H1 chart [5] - Governor Ueda's policy guidance on Friday will be crucial in determining whether the current technical correction can evolve into a sustained trend reversal [5]