前11个月社零增4%：以旧换新动能释放，服务消费成为新增长极

Economic Data Overview - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [1] - From January to November, the total retail sales amounted to 456,067 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [1] - Sales of essential and some upgraded products saw significant growth, with food, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies increasing by 6.1%, 20.6%, and 11.7% respectively [1] Service Consumption Growth - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with an acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [1][5] - Notable growth was observed in leisure services, communication services, tourism consulting, and transportation services [5] - The share of service consumption in total consumption is increasing, with residents' spending on services reaching 46.1% of per capita consumption, expected to exceed 50% by 2030 [6] "Old for New" Policy Impact - The "old for new" policy has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, with significant contributions from home appliances and digital products [2] - The automotive sector also saw production and sales surpassing 31 million units, with growth rates exceeding 10% year-on-year, aided by the "old for new" initiative [2] Policy Directions for 2026 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized optimizing the implementation of the "two new" policies, focusing on long-term cultivation rather than short-term stimulation [3][4] - Future support will shift towards new productive forces, including low-altitude economy sectors like aircraft manufacturing and airspace management systems [3] Rural and County Consumption - Rural retail sales grew by 4.4% year-on-year, outpacing urban growth of 3.9%, indicating significant potential in rural markets [8] - The recent notification from the Ministry of Commerce highlights the importance of expanding county-level consumption and upgrading rural consumption [9] Financial Support for Consumption - The notification outlines increased financial support for consumer goods and services, including personal consumption loans and innovative financial products [9][10] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing collaboration between financial institutions and local departments to effectively implement these measures [10]