“人民币全球化”大势已成定局，西方围堵落空，眼睁睁看着却无能为力

Core Viewpoint - The continuous appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) has become a central topic of global attention, reflecting China's rising influence in the international economic arena as of December 15, 2025, with the RMB/USD exchange rate at 7.047, a 3.3% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: RMB Appreciation Trends - The RMB has shown a "steady rise" characteristic throughout 2025, with fluctuations between 7.2-7.3 in Q1, followed by a strengthening trend starting in Q2 due to enhanced economic recovery and expanded trade surplus [1] - The GDP growth rate for China in 2025 is projected to reach 5.2%, significantly above the global average, with a trade surplus expected to exceed 800 billion USD, providing a solid foundation for exchange rate stability [1] Group 2: Government Intervention - The Chinese government has implemented precise regulatory strategies to manage the appreciation pressure, with the central bank purchasing approximately 180 billion USD from October to December 2025, directly adding to reserve assets [2] - This approach aims to tighten domestic USD liquidity and increase the financing costs for RMB long positions, thereby slowing the appreciation pace without reversing the trend [2] Group 3: Global Economic Impact - The RMB's appreciation is reshaping the global economic landscape, enhancing China's pricing power in international commodity markets, with RMB-denominated transactions in iron ore and crude oil increasing by 3-5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The shift is leading to a restructuring of global supply chains, with labor-intensive industries moving to regions with lower costs, while high-end manufacturing continues to rely on China, forming a "dual circulation" industrial ecosystem centered around China [4] Group 4: Belt and Road Initiative - The RMB's appreciation is providing new momentum for the Belt and Road Initiative, with non-financial direct investment in Belt and Road countries reaching 132 billion RMB in the first nine months of 2025, a 15.7% increase year-on-year [6] - The share of RMB settlements in infrastructure projects has risen to 41.3%, reducing exchange rate fluctuation risks and enhancing investment returns [6] Group 5: RMB Internationalization - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing steadily during the appreciation cycle, with RMB settlements in foreign trade nearing 30%, a 14 percentage point increase since 2020 [7] - The number of participants in the RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS) has reached 138 countries and regions, with transaction amounts increasing by 28.6% year-on-year, effectively lowering transaction costs and settlement risks [7] - The RMB's rise is attributed to China's economic strength and development philosophy, transitioning from passive responses to proactive market expectations management [7]