加工费倒贴也要干？山东逆势砸280亿美元，要在缺矿潮中抢下全球铜霸权

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Shandong's ambitious plan to invest 200 billion RMB (approximately 28 billion USD) in building a world-class copper smelting empire by 2027, despite the current challenges in the copper industry and global geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Context - China dominates the global copper industry, consuming nearly 60% of the world's copper demand, with a projected share of refined copper production nearing 60% by 2025 [3][5]. - Despite this dominance, China's self-sufficiency in copper is low, with only about 20% of its copper needs met by domestic sources, leading to a reliance on imports [5][6]. - The processing fees for copper have plummeted, with predictions of negative processing fees in 2024, indicating that smelters may incur losses just to keep operations running [7][8]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Shandong's investment is seen as a long-term bet on the future demand for copper driven by the global energy transition, including electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies [10][12]. - The anticipated increase in global copper demand by 2.7% and 3.7% in 2025 for the overall market and China, respectively, supports Shandong's strategy to expand capacity despite current overproduction [13]. - The plan is not just an economic calculation but also a strategic move to secure a competitive position in the global market, aiming to develop high-end copper materials [14][29]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The primary challenge for Shandong is the long development cycle of copper mines, which can take 10 to 15 years, potentially outpacing the expansion of smelting capacity [14][15]. - Geopolitical factors pose significant risks, as the U.S. and Europe are increasingly viewing copper as a strategic resource, which could lead to trade barriers against Chinese copper products [19][20]. - Shandong's plan to expand into international markets faces obstacles due to the current trend of de-globalization, making it difficult to secure export opportunities [20][21]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Chinese Manufacturing - Shandong's situation reflects a broader challenge within Chinese manufacturing, where there is a need to move up the value chain while facing raw material constraints and thin profit margins [26][29]. - The investment in copper smelting is part of China's ambition to ascend the global industrial hierarchy, despite facing significant uncertainties regarding resource availability and technological advancements [29][30]. - The ongoing transition to clean energy is expected to elevate copper's strategic importance, indicating that the competition for copper resources is just beginning [31][32].