高基数扰动11月经济数据，促消费稳投资政策有望加快推出

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for November shows fluctuations in growth rates across various sectors, but there are positive signals in exports and prices, indicating a resilient economy with a projected growth target of around 5% for the year [1][4]. Economic Performance - In November, the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while the cumulative growth for January to November was 6.0%, reflecting stability despite a slight decline [1]. - The service production index grew by 4.2% in November, with a cumulative growth of 5.6% for the first eleven months, indicating steady growth in the service sector [1]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative growth of 4.0% for January to November, surpassing last year's growth rate [2]. Sectoral Insights - Emerging industries and modern services are experiencing rapid growth, with specific sectors like electronic materials and integrated circuits showing increases of 22.9% and 24.6% respectively [2]. - The production index for information transmission and software services grew by 12.9%, while leasing and business services increased by 8.4%, indicating a strong momentum in modern service industries [2]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, but investment in manufacturing rose by 1.9%, particularly in sectors like railways and new energy vehicles [3]. - The government is expected to implement policies to stimulate investment and consumption, with a focus on infrastructure and private investment to support economic recovery [7][8]. Future Outlook - The central government plans to enhance macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [5][6]. - There is a strong expectation for proactive fiscal measures, including potential interest rate cuts and increased infrastructure investment in early 2024 [8].