3 6 Ke·2025-12-15 12:33Core Insights - Apple CEO Tim Cook's visit to China, particularly to the Shanghai THE MONSTERS exhibition, symbolizes the intersection of tech giants and the collectible toy market, highlighting the cultural significance of this event in China's consumer history [1] - Despite impressive financial performance, Pop Mart's stock has seen a nearly 40% decline since its peak in August, indicating a disconnect between strong sales and investor sentiment [1][2] - The company's reliance on the Labubu IP raises concerns about sustainability and future growth, as it accounted for 34.7% of revenue in the first half of 2025, with a staggering growth rate of 668.4% [8][10] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year, with overseas market revenue surging by 365%-370% [1][7] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 has already surpassed the total revenue for 2024, indicating robust sales performance [1] Market Dynamics - The collectible toy market has shifted towards lower-priced, instant gratification products post-pandemic, with Pop Mart capitalizing on this trend through its blind box offerings [3][5] - The initial hype around Labubu has begun to wane, with prices for hidden variants on secondary markets halving from their peak, reflecting a potential saturation of demand [1][7] Strategic Direction - Pop Mart aims to transition from a fast-fashion model to a luxury brand, seeking to position itself as a "Louis Vuitton" of the toy industry, with a focus on global expansion and premium branding [11][13] - The company has adopted a strategy of "sufficient scarcity," aiming to balance product availability with brand prestige, moving away from speculative pricing models [21][25] Consumer Behavior - The decline in speculative buying from resellers has led to a more stable consumer base, with Pop Mart focusing on genuine fans rather than speculative investors [20][25] - The company is implementing a product stratification strategy, ensuring that lower-tier products remain accessible while maintaining exclusivity for high-end offerings [23][24]