“汽水”汹涌，“云村”告急

Core Insights - The online music industry is experiencing a shift, with Qishui Music rapidly gaining users and challenging NetEase Cloud Music's position as the second-largest player in the market [1][2]. User Metrics - Qishui Music has reached 120 million monthly active users, closing in on NetEase Cloud Music's 147 million [1]. - NetEase Cloud Music's monthly active users have declined from 183 million in 2021 to 147 million, indicating a significant drop in user engagement [2][4]. Revenue Trends - NetEase Cloud Music's net revenue has decreased for four consecutive quarters, with Q3 2025 revenue at 2 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-over-year [4]. - Revenue declines for the previous quarters were 5.3%, 8.4%, and 3.5% respectively [4]. Competitive Landscape - NetEase Cloud Music faces pressure from both Tencent Music, which has a stronghold due to its multi-platform integration and copyright resources, and Qishui Music, which leverages Douyin's user base [4][6]. - Qishui Music's strategy mirrors that of NetEase Cloud Music in targeting users and content, leading to direct competition [5]. User Demographics - Qishui Music targets price-sensitive users and has successfully attracted a large number of users from lower-tier markets through its free listening and low-cost membership strategies [6]. - The overlap of users between Douyin and Qishui Music is significant, with 38% of users utilizing both platforms [6]. Content Strategy - Both platforms are struggling with a lack of access to popular music copyrights, leading to similar content strategies that focus on supporting independent artists and creating viral hits [7]. - Qishui Music's top 1000 songs show that 86% originated from Douyin, indicating a strong influence of viral content on its platform [7]. Future Outlook - Despite Qishui Music's rapid growth, its long-term success is uncertain due to unclear strategic positioning within ByteDance and the challenges of monetizing its user base [9][10]. - The commercial viability of Qishui Music remains questionable, as its revenue from advertising is low and its subscription conversion rate is significantly lower than that of Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music [11][12].