美国政府经济贸易政策逐渐动摇美元本位国际货币体系 利多因素下人民币汇率有可能升“破7”

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [1] - The onshore RMB appreciated significantly against the USD, reaching 7.0502, indicating a strong upward trend since late November [1] - The cross-border RMB index has been steadily increasing since 2017, reflecting a growing level of RMB internationalization [1] Group 2 - Factors driving the recent appreciation of the RMB include the Fed's rate cut, a positive dialogue between China and the US, and market speculation regarding the Fed's leadership [4][5] - The Fed's rate cuts are expected to weaken the USD further, especially if economic conditions in the US deteriorate [5] - The Chinese economy is projected to strengthen due to proactive macroeconomic policies and reforms aimed at enhancing high-quality development [6] Group 3 - Despite positive factors, the RMB faces uncertainties due to domestic economic challenges and external trade environment fluctuations [7][8] - The global economic landscape is under pressure from US tariff policies, which could impact international trade dynamics [8] - The USD index may not weaken as anticipated, as the Fed's decisions will still be influenced by economic data [8][9] Group 4 - The outlook for the RMB suggests potential for further appreciation, but stability at lower levels remains uncertain [10][11] - The Japanese economy is experiencing inflation pressures, leading to speculation about potential interest rate hikes, contrasting with the Fed's easing stance [12][14] - The internationalization of the RMB could benefit from the current geopolitical landscape, but it requires careful coordination of reforms and openness [16][17]