新兴市场货币强势逆袭！2026年万亿资金有望为涨势续上动能

Core Insights - Emerging market currencies are performing strongly due to increased volatility and a weakening dollar, prompting investors to reassess their exposure to the dollar and consider the economic value of developing countries [2][5] - The trend of emerging market currencies is expected to continue into 2026, with significant interest from hedge funds and banks benefiting from foreign exchange trading [1][6] Group 1: Emerging Market Currency Performance - The Hungarian Forint's trading volume has more than doubled since January, with a 20% increase in its exchange rate against the dollar, marking its best performance in 25 years [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index reached a historical high in July, with an expected annual increase of over 6%, the best since 2017 [1] - The Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso are among the best-performing emerging market currencies, supported by robust central banks and high interest rates, with Brazil's rate at 15%, the highest in nearly 20 years [12] Group 2: Impact of Dollar Weakness - The dollar's weakening is part of a broader cycle shift, ending a 14-year bear market for emerging market currencies, as investors move away from reliance on U.S. assets [2][5] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by another two 25 basis points in the coming year, which is crucial for many emerging market currencies and is driving capital inflows [9][12] - The high volatility in the foreign exchange market has created profitable opportunities for hedge funds, with EDL Capital reporting a 28% increase in value this year [5][6] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Major banks have generated nearly $40 billion in revenue from emerging market foreign exchange trading in the first nine months, more than double the revenue from trading ten major currencies [6] - Over half of surveyed top forex traders and hedge fund managers indicated increasing interest in emerging market currencies as the dollar's dominance wanes [9] - The International Monetary Fund has warned of potential risks in the currency market, highlighting that nearly half of global forex trading is dominated by a small number of large banks [5]