广期所铂期货首次涨停！年内暴涨97%，缘何赶超黄金？

Core Viewpoint - Platinum and palladium prices have surged significantly, with platinum futures hitting a limit up for the first time since their listing, driven by strong industrial demand and tightening supply conditions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 15, platinum futures (PT2606) closed up 7%, marking the first limit up since its listing, with a trading volume of 41,832 contracts, a 237% increase [3]. - Palladium futures (PD2606) also saw a substantial rise, closing up 4.73% at 407.6 yuan per gram, with a trading volume increase of 498% [3][4]. - Year-to-date, NYMEX platinum has risen by 97%, while NYMEX palladium has increased by over 73%, outperforming COMEX gold's 65% rise during the same period [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in platinum prices is attributed to increasing industrial demand, particularly from the recovering fuel vehicle sector, and supply constraints from South Africa, which produces over 70% of the world's platinum [4][5]. - The global platinum market is expected to face a supply shortage for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an anticipated annual gap of 21.6 tons due to structural supply tensions and geopolitical trade uncertainties [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that platinum and palladium prices will continue to rise, supported by macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply-demand imbalances [5][6][7]. - The recent listing of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to enhance China's pricing power and risk management capabilities in the platinum group metals market [3][5]. - The long-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations of price fluctuations between $1,300 and $1,800 per ounce for platinum by 2026, driven by demand in the jewelry market and industrial applications [6][7].