KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-15 13:17Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Moutai's core product, Feitian Moutai, has experienced fluctuations, prompting the company to cancel its distribution plan, significantly reduce the scale of non-standard products, and signal a potential easing of recruitment thresholds for distributors [1][2][3] Policy Adjustments - Moutai's recent adjustments include the cancellation of the distribution plan and a significant reduction in non-standard products, with plans to cut the volume of certain products by 30% to 50% [3][10] - The upcoming distributor conference on December 28 is expected to announce specific details regarding these policy changes, which have become a focal point for the industry [1][3][10] Price Fluctuations - On December 15, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was around 1580 yuan per bottle, having previously dipped to 1510 yuan and rebounded to 1600 yuan [2][9] - The profit margins for distributors have been severely compressed, with single bottle profits dropping to just a few yuan, making it difficult for ordinary consumers to purchase at these wholesale prices [2][9] Impact on Business - Analysts predict that if the non-standard product reduction policy is strictly enforced, Moutai's related business volume could shrink by 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [4][11] - The cancellation of the distribution plan is expected to alleviate the loss pressure on distributors in the fourth quarter [11] Market Dynamics - There is speculation that Moutai may consider easing recruitment thresholds for distributors in 2026, which could stabilize market prices [5][12] - Historical context shows that previous adjustments in 2013-2014 during a market downturn led to significant changes in Moutai's distribution strategy, which may inform current policy shifts [6][13][14]