G7两国央行政策罕见背离，汇市这一“高确定性”交易却遭颠覆！

Group 1 - The G7 central banks are taking opposite actions regarding interest rates, with a focus on shorting the GBP/JPY exchange rate as a seemingly risk-free bet [2] - The GBP/JPY exchange rate has been rising despite the narrowing interest rate differential between the UK and Japan, which has decreased by 165 basis points since mid-last year [4][5] - The bond market reflects a similar trend, with the 2-year yield differential between UK and Japanese bonds halving since mid-2023, yet the GBP/JPY exchange rate has increased by 14% during the same period [6] Group 2 - The "real" yield differential has also narrowed, with the inflation-adjusted 5-year yield differential contracting by about 60 basis points [8] - The GBP/JPY exchange rate has cumulatively risen over 1% in the past 18 months and rebounded approximately 5% since mid-year, reaching its strongest level in 17 years [9] - The weakening of the yen is a significant factor, with the yen's effective exchange rate index dropping 30% since the pandemic, while the pound's effective exchange rate index has increased by 10% since 2020 [10] Group 3 - The OECD forecasts indicate that the GDP growth rates for the UK and Japan will be roughly equal this year, with slight acceleration for the UK in the next two years [12] - Diverging fiscal policies are playing a crucial role in the exchange rate movements, with the UK tightening its fiscal policy while Japan is initiating another round of government spending [15] - Japanese investors are major players in cross-border capital flows, holding nearly one-third of UK government bonds, with significant purchases occurring during political turmoil in Japan [17]