Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has announced the resumption of its bond-buying program, leading several banks to revise their expectations for the Fed's bond purchases in the coming year [1][3] - Barclays estimates that the Fed may purchase nearly $525 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds by 2026, an increase from the previous estimate of $345 billion [3] - JPMorgan predicts that the Fed will maintain a monthly purchase of approximately $40 billion in Treasury bonds until April next year, before slowing down to about $20 billion per month [3] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices have achieved double-digit gains this year, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising approximately 20%, marking its third consecutive year of similar growth [5] - Factors supporting bullish sentiment include Fed rate cuts, strong consumer performance during the holiday shopping season, and broad market strength across various sectors beyond just technology [5] - Concerns from bearish investors include the Fed's projected rate cuts, rising long-term Treasury yields, and signs of weakness in the real estate market [5][6] Group 3 - There is a growing trend of market participants reassessing the prominence of the "Big Seven" U.S. tech stocks, with increased focus on the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500, particularly small-cap stocks [8] - The Russell 2000 index has reached a historical high, indicating strong performance among small-cap stocks [8] Group 4 - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming central bank interest rate decisions and delayed U.S. employment and CPI inflation reports [10] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data, which will include delayed figures from October, is expected to show a modest increase of 40,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4% [10]
上周美联储宣布重启购债计划,华尔街多家银行修正对明年债市展望
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-15 13:25