美联储2026年降息次数，明天非农一锤定音？债市分歧加剧

Core Viewpoint - The debate over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path for 2026 is intensifying, with the U.S. bond market awaiting key economic data to gauge the central bank's next moves [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Bond traders are betting on two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, despite inflation remaining high, indicating a significant divergence from the Fed's own guidance [1][2] - The market is pricing in a potential drop in the federal funds rate to around 3.2% during this easing cycle [6] - The yield curve is steepening, with the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.51% and the 10-year yield at approximately 4.16%, reflecting complex expectations for future economic growth and policy easing [2] Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - The non-farm payroll report set to be released on December 16 is viewed as a critical data point that could influence the bond market's trajectory [4][5] - Bloomberg's median forecast suggests an increase of 50,000 jobs in November, down from 119,000 in September, with a rising unemployment rate of 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [4] - A weaker-than-expected jobs report could lead to a shift in market expectations for rate cuts, potentially moving the timeline for the first comprehensive cut from June to April [4] Group 3: Diverging Opinions Among Investors - There is a split among institutional investors regarding the interpretation of upcoming data, with some believing it will necessitate significant rate cuts, while others caution against overreacting due to data collection disruptions caused by the government shutdown [5] - DWS Americas' fixed income head anticipates that the labor market's direction will directly influence interest rates, while WisdomTree's fixed income strategist warns that if November's data is similar to September's, it could trigger a sell-off in bonds [5] Group 4: Leadership Changes and Political Pressure - The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve, with Powell's term ending in May, adds another layer of uncertainty to market expectations, especially with political pressures for lower rates [7] - The internal divisions within the Fed regarding the policy path are becoming more public, with some members opposing rate cuts until more inflation data is available [7]