破题罕见负增长，2026年投资如何“止跌回稳”

Core Viewpoint - The fixed asset investment (FAI) in China has seen a year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with a slight growth of 0.8% when excluding real estate development investment, indicating a significant downturn in investment trends [1][6]. Investment Trends - The FAI growth rate has been declining since 2011, with projections suggesting that by 2025, the FAI growth rate may turn negative for the first time in two decades [1]. - Real estate development investment has been a major drag on FAI growth, with a sharp decline to -10% in 2022 and further drops expected in 2023 and 2024 [6]. - The manufacturing sector's investment growth has also decreased significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 1.9% reported for the first eleven months of the year [6][7]. Policy Responses - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to stabilize investment and increase the scale of central budget investments, while optimizing the management of local government special bonds [4]. - Experts suggest that the current decline in FAI is a reflection of economic structural adjustments, and caution against expecting a rapid rebound through expansive fiscal policies [4][6]. Future Outlook - Projections for 2026 indicate a potential rebound in investment growth, with expectations of a 2.8% year-on-year increase in FAI in the first quarter, driven by new policy measures and improved conditions for infrastructure and manufacturing investments [8]. - The anticipated easing of financial pressures on local governments and the historical trend of investment growth in the early part of the year support this optimistic outlook [8][9]. - Experts highlight the importance of public investment in infrastructure and social services to stimulate demand and support economic recovery [9].