铂金罕见涨停、钯金大涨，发生了什么？还能持续多久？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum and palladium prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic liquidity expectations, supply-demand imbalances, and strong market sentiment, marking a significant shift in the precious metals market [1][6][13]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 15, platinum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a 7% limit-up, closing at 482.4 yuan per gram, marking the first limit-up since its listing; palladium futures also rose by 4.73% to 407.6 yuan per gram [1]. - Trading volume for platinum futures surged by 237% to 41,832 contracts, while palladium trading volume skyrocketed by 498% [2]. - Internationally, platinum futures in New York rose over 2% to $1,805 per ounce, and palladium futures increased by 4% to $1,610.50 per ounce [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts attribute the price surge to macroeconomic easing expectations, tight physical supply, resilient demand, and the overall positive sentiment in the precious metals sector [6][13]. - South Africa, which produces over 70% of the world's platinum, faces structural issues such as power shortages and aging infrastructure, contributing to supply constraints [13]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a third consecutive year of platinum market shortages, with a potential gap of 30 tons by 2025, indicating a structural supply-demand mismatch [13]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - A weaker US dollar and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, particularly with speculation around Kevin Warsh's potential nomination as Fed Chair, have lowered US Treasury yields and the holding costs for precious metals [6][10]. - The market is actively trading on the Fed's policy shift, with expectations of two rate cuts next year, which has further supported precious metals prices [10]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment demand remains robust, with China being the largest platinum consumer market; the introduction of platinum and palladium futures options has provided new investment and hedging tools, leading to increased demand [14]. - The rise in ETF holdings indicates a significant recovery in investor sentiment towards precious metals [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the current price rally for platinum and palladium will depend on several key variables, including the maintenance of high leasing rates, the macroeconomic environment, and the speed of supply recovery [15]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, concerns remain regarding the potential for high leasing rates to decline, which could lead to market corrections [16].