房利美与房地美悄然增持数十亿抵押贷款债券，为降利率与IPO铺路

Core Viewpoint - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have significantly increased their mortgage-backed securities and housing loans on their balance sheets, raising speculation about their preparation for a potential public listing while attempting to lower loan rates and enhance profitability [1][4]. Group 1: Portfolio Growth - Over the past five months, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased their retained investment portfolios by more than 25%, bringing their combined holdings to $234 billion, the highest since 2021 [1]. - Analysts estimate that they may increase their holdings by up to $100 billion next year [1]. - Their retained investment portfolio has grown by over $50 billion recently, although it remains more than $200 billion below the imposed limits, indicating room for further growth [3]. Group 2: Impact on Mortgage Rates - The increase in retained portfolios is seen as a strategy to moderately lower mortgage rates by reducing the supply of MBS available to investors, which can compress yields and subsequently lower loan rates [4]. - Despite government efforts to lower mortgage rates, rates have remained high, with the average 30-year mortgage rate still above 6% even after a cumulative reduction of 1.75 percentage points since 2022 [5]. - Citigroup predicts that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could increase their combined retained portfolios by about $100 billion by 2026, potentially compressing MBS risk premiums by approximately 0.25 percentage points [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The significant buying activity by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is expected to suppress the number of securities entering the market and support their prices, thereby altering how investors assess risk [2]. - Analysts suggest that the new demand from these government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) could change the delicate balance that determines bond prices and yields [6]. - If the expansion of their portfolios continues, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could become the most important buyers in the market, prompting investors to closely monitor their actions [7]. Group 4: Future IPO Considerations - The expansion of retained portfolios may lay the groundwork for a public offering, as holding more MBS could lead to increased interest income and potentially higher profits, addressing concerns about profitability for any future stock issuance [6]. - The current administration is reportedly exploring options for a potential IPO for these companies, with indications that it could happen sooner rather than later [6].