Tesla Starts Driverless Robotaxi Tests: Time to Bet on TSLA Stock?

Core Insights - Tesla has made significant progress in its robotaxi initiative by testing vehicles without human oversight, marking a crucial milestone in its long-term growth strategy [1][10] - CEO Elon Musk indicated that the company is close to eliminating safety monitors, with the potential for fully driverless Teslas operating on public roads by the end of the year [2][5] - The robotaxi program, launched in June, is currently operational in Austin and San Francisco, with plans for expansion to other cities contingent on regulatory approvals [4][10] Robotaxi Program - The robotaxi service began in Austin on June 22 and is set to expand to Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas, Houston, and Miami, depending on regulatory clearance [4] - Currently, human supervision is still required, with safety monitors present in the vehicles during operation [5] - Despite logging over 550,000 robotaxi miles, the program's reach remains limited compared to earlier projections [6] Competitive Landscape - Alphabet's Waymo leads the autonomous ride-hailing sector, operating without safety drivers and achieving over 450,000 weekly paid rides [7] - Tesla claims advantages in scalability and cost, but closing the gap with competitors will take time [7] Automotive Business Challenges - Tesla's automotive segment has faced challenges, reporting its first annual decline in vehicle deliveries in 2024, with a 13% year-over-year drop in Q1 and another 13.4% in Q2 [8][10] - The decline is attributed to weakening demand, particularly in Europe, and increased competition from companies like BYD [9] Energy Segment Performance - Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment has shown strong growth, achieving record deployments and becoming the highest-margin division [12] - Energy storage deployments have increased by approximately 180% over the past three years, positioning the segment for continued growth [12] Future Growth Drivers - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is seen as a potential long-term growth driver, with pilot production underway and plans for mass production by late 2026 [13][14] - CEO Musk believes Optimus could become Tesla's largest product, although its commercialization timeline remains uncertain [15] Financial Outlook - Tesla shares have gained 13% year-to-date but have underperformed the industry [18] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 14.48, significantly above the industry average, with projected declines in revenues and EPS for 2025 [19][21] - The consensus estimates for 2026 suggest a recovery with expected growth in revenues and EPS [21]