国信证券荀玉根：投资增速回正靠AI和股市

Core Conclusion - Fixed asset investment growth in China may experience its first annual negative growth since data collection began, with declines in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments [1][2][36] - To reverse the negative investment growth, reliance on the AI+ sector is essential, and the capital market must play a larger role [1][2][22] - Recommendations include accelerating the pace of technology IPOs, actively attracting long-term capital from the stock market, and increasing support for diversified financing tools like science and technology bonds [1][2][28][30][31] Investment Trends - Investment growth has been a key driver of China's economic growth, historically outpacing overall GDP growth [1][36] - The current situation marks a rare instance of negative investment growth, with a projected annual decline of -1.0% [2][36] - The decline is primarily driven by three major sectors: manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure, which together account for over 70% of total investment [2][36] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a significant slowdown, with cumulative investment down by -14.7% year-on-year in the first ten months of the year, and monthly growth dropping to -23.1% [6][39] - Demand-side factors include a demographic shift leading to a decrease of approximately 4.5 million eligible homebuyers compared to peak levels, and suppressed purchasing intentions due to falling housing prices [6][39] - Supply-side issues include ongoing debt risks for property companies, with approximately 524.4 billion due this year, limiting their investment capacity [6][39] Infrastructure Sector - Infrastructure investment has weakened, with a year-on-year decline of -12.1% in October [8][41] - Contributing factors include reduced funding capabilities due to a cooling land finance system and a lack of project reserves during the transition between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [8][41] - Local governments are prioritizing risk prevention and debt repayment over new projects, reflecting a cautious fiscal approach [8][41] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment has shown signs of fatigue, with a year-on-year decline of -6.7% in October [10][43] - Factors include declining corporate profitability, with the median return on invested capital (ROIC) for non-financial A-share companies dropping to 2.9% from 3.7% the previous year [10][43] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to reduced capacity expansion among enterprises, while some are shifting investments abroad due to "de-globalization" trends [10][43] Historical Investment Recovery Insights - Historical data shows that previous investment recoveries were driven by demand shifts, with notable low points in 2006, 2015, and 2020 [12][45] - The 2008 recovery was fueled by a government-led stimulus plan focusing on large-scale infrastructure projects [14][47] - The 2015 recovery involved supply-side structural reforms and targeted demand stimulation through housing policy adjustments [16][51] - The 2020 recovery was characterized by a focus on new economic drivers amid the pandemic, with significant investments in high-tech sectors [18][55] Future Investment Strategies - The current investment recovery requires a focus on the AI+ sector, which presents vast opportunities and aligns with national strategic goals [22][56] - The government’s role in the economy is evolving, transitioning from direct involvement to a more supportive role that encourages private investment [26][60] - Recommendations for enhancing investment include improving the IPO process for tech companies, increasing long-term capital from the stock market, and expanding the use of science and technology bonds [28][30][31]