Tesla(US:TSLA) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-15 15:13Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is expected to be a milestone for Tesla and Elon Musk as the company officially enters the autonomous driving and robotics business, with significant developments anticipated in the Robotaxi sector [1][2]. Group 1: Autonomous Driving and Robotics - Tesla is projected to accelerate the deployment of autonomous taxis across the U.S., with the Cybercab expected to begin mass production around April to May next year [1]. - The market opportunity from artificial intelligence and autonomous driving is estimated to be at least $1 trillion for Tesla [2][5]. - The penetration rate of Full Self-Driving (FSD) is expected to exceed 50%, which will significantly alter Tesla's financial model and profit margins [4][6]. Group 2: Market Valuation and Growth Potential - Tesla's market capitalization is anticipated to surpass $2 trillion within the next year, with an optimistic scenario suggesting it could reach $3 trillion by the end of 2026 [3][5]. - The target stock price for Tesla is set at $800 in the next 12 to 18 months, reflecting the expected release of its "AI valuation" [3][5]. - Tesla is expected to capture approximately 70% of the global autonomous driving market over the next decade, as no other company can match its scale and business scope [3][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Strategic Vision - The federal government is expected to relax regulations on autonomous driving, granting federal agencies more authority and diminishing state-level control [2][5]. - Tesla is viewed not merely as an automotive company but as a leading disruptive technology firm, with its strategic vision having gradually taken shape over the past five years [4][6]. - Elon Musk's new compensation plan and potential significant holdings in xAI are seen as key drivers for Tesla's AI strategy [4][6].