Core Viewpoint - Western countries are facing a demographic crisis characterized by an aging population and low fertility rates, leading to a potential economic downturn due to a shrinking workforce [1][2][3]. Economic Implications - The World Bank warns that the economic consequences of this demographic shift will be severe, as a declining working population will struggle to meet the demands for goods and services [2]. - Countries like Japan are already experiencing the financial strain of an aging population, with nursing care costs projected to rise by 75% over the next 30 years [4]. - A study by Korn Ferry predicts a global talent shortage of over 85 million people by 2030, which could result in a loss of $8.5 trillion in expected revenues across various sectors [6]. Labor Market Challenges - The ratio of working-age individuals to the elderly is diminishing, making it increasingly difficult to support the aging population financially [4]. - Current policies, such as Greece's six-day workweek, are seen as insufficient to address the structural labor shortages [5][11]. - The U.S. faces a demographic labor force gap of 232 million people globally, indicating that merely increasing working hours will not suffice [12]. Immigration Solutions - Lant Pritchett proposes a radical rethinking of immigration policies, advocating for a temporary rotational migration system to fill labor shortages [14][25]. - He suggests that developed nations should allow immigrants to work for a limited time, which would benefit both the host and sending countries economically [15][21]. - Pritchett emphasizes the need for bilateral agreements to manage labor needs effectively while addressing potential shortages in sending nations [21]. Political and Business Engagement - Pritchett is working to build political support for his immigration proposal by collaborating with countries expanding their immigration channels and engaging business leaders in sectors most affected by labor shortages [25][26]. - The urgency of addressing labor shortages may prompt politicians to reconsider immigration policies, moving beyond traditional binary views of citizenship and border control [23].
Rich countries must accept 6-day workweek or more immigration, top economist warns