2 Predictions for Eli Lilly in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly has achieved a significant milestone by becoming the first healthcare stock to reach a market cap of $1 trillion, although it has since dipped below that level, and the company is expected to continue its strong performance in the coming years [1] Group 1: New Product Launches - Eli Lilly is poised to strengthen its leadership in the anti-obesity drug market with two upcoming launches: orforglipron and retatrutide [2] - Orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 medicine, has shown promising results in phase 3 studies, leading to significant weight loss and reductions in A1C levels, outperforming competitors in clinical trials [2][4] - The FDA has granted orforglipron a new voucher for expedited approval, potentially allowing it to receive regulatory approval within one to two months, aiming for early next year [4] - Retatrutide, which is still in phase 3 studies, could reach the market by the end of next year, with a unique mechanism that mimics three gut hormones, potentially offering greater efficacy than current treatments [5][6] - In a late-stage study, retatrutide demonstrated a mean weight loss of 28.7% at the highest dose, targeting an underserved market segment [6] Group 2: Stock Performance and Predictions - There is speculation that Eli Lilly may announce a stock split in 2026, as the stock price has significantly increased, and a split could reflect management's confidence in the company's future prospects [8][9] - The company has shown remarkable revenue and earnings growth, supported by promising pipeline candidates like orforglipron and retatrutide, which could justify a stock split [9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Valuation - While competition in Eli Lilly's core therapeutic areas is expected to increase, few companies have matched the clinical trial results of its candidates [10] - Eli Lilly's shares are currently trading at 32 times forward earnings, higher than the healthcare sector average of 17.8, but the company's growth justifies this premium [11] - The company remains attractive at current levels and is positioned to deliver market-beating returns over the next five years [11]