Why this analyst is bearish on Tesla, despite the stock hitting an all-time high

Group 1: Ford's Financial Adjustments - Ford is taking a $19.5 billion charge to write down its electric vehicle (EV) investments, which is larger than expected [1] - Of this charge, $8 billion is specifically related to EVs, and this move was anticipated by most investors [2] - The decision follows the expiration of the federal EV tax credit at the end of September, making such write-downs inevitable [2] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Ford's current vehicle lineup is primarily trucks and SUVs, with the exception of the Ford Mustang, positioning the company favorably in the market [3] - The company benefits from lower oil and gas prices and declining interest rates, which enhances its competitive edge [4] - Ford has adopted a balanced approach between EVs, hybrids, and internal combustion engine vehicles, unlike General Motors, which took a more aggressive stance on EVs [4] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Despite recent stock rallies, the risk-reward balance for Ford is considered neutral, with a 12-month price target set at $15, indicating potential upside [5] - Ford's dividend yield is attractive, but there are other companies, such as General Motors, that are viewed more favorably in terms of risk-reward [6] Group 4: Tesla's Market Developments - Tesla shares reached a record high following the announcement of a robo taxi test in Austin without a safety monitor, which is seen as a significant step towards fully autonomous vehicles [7][15] - Analysts expect a major year for Tesla in 2026 as the company accelerates its robo taxi launch and begins volume production of the Cyber Cab [17] - The stock's recent performance is attributed to sentiment rather than fundamentals, with a notable disconnect between Tesla's stock price and its earnings, which were down 31% year-over-year [12][14] Group 5: Future Prospects and Challenges - Tesla's full self-driving technology still faces significant liability concerns, and there are doubts about the speed of its market expansion [8] - The upcoming fourth-quarter sales report is expected to reveal a drop in domestic sales due to the absence of EV tax credits, which could impact investor sentiment [11] - Despite the stock's volatility, investors are focusing on Tesla's long-term potential in AI, robotics, and energy storage, which may justify current valuations [13]