Forget Deliveries: Analyst Says They 'Likely Won't Matter' For Tesla Stock

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock is being valued more like a technology company rather than a traditional automotive company, with analysts suggesting that electric vehicle delivery numbers may become less significant for its valuation going forward [1][2][7]. Group 1: Analyst Insights - Tesla reported record electric vehicle deliveries in Q3, driven by strong demand before the federal EV tax credit ended [2]. - Barclays analyst Dan Levy predicts that Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries will be "soft" and may not impact the stock price significantly [3]. - Levy has raised his price target for Tesla from $275 to $350, maintaining an Equal Weight rating [3]. Group 2: Future Projections - Gene Munster from Deepwater Management forecasts a 7% decline in Tesla's 2025 deliveries, predicting flat to 5% growth in 2026, contrasting with a Street estimate of 16% year-over-year growth [4]. - The focus on Tesla's growth may shift towards technology advancements such as robotaxis, Full Self-Driving (FSD), and the Optimus Bot, as emphasized by CEO Elon Musk [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The shift in focus from vehicle deliveries to technology could be beneficial for investors, especially as Tesla faces declining sales and weaker demand in markets like China [4]. - Analyst notes suggest that Tesla's valuation may increasingly reflect its technological potential rather than traditional automotive metrics [7].