2025年关下的车市 20家车企撒钱补贴，“翘尾效应”为何失灵？

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a tug-of-war between the increase in rigid expenses due to the reduction of purchase tax exemptions and the continuation of national subsidy policies like "trade-in" programs, although details remain uncertain [1][14]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - Starting January 1, 2026, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, with the current tax rate of 10% effectively becoming 5%, and the exemption cap dropping from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan [2][15]. - For a new energy vehicle priced at 300,000 yuan, the purchase tax will be 15,000 yuan, while for a vehicle priced at 500,000 yuan, the tax will be 35,000 yuan after applying the maximum exemption [2][15]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Sales Trends - Despite the proactive measures by over 20 automakers to introduce "tax coverage" policies, the industry remains cautious about the fourth-quarter market outlook, with expectations of no significant "tail effect" as seen in previous years [2][6]. - In December 2023, the retail sales of passenger vehicles dropped to 297,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a month-on-month decrease of 8% [3][16]. - The anticipated "tail effect" has turned into a "flat tail," with November retail sales of 2.225 million units showing a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [8][22]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The uncertainty surrounding the continuation of national and local subsidies has led consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, impacting immediate purchasing decisions [7][21]. - The introduction of "tax coverage" policies by automakers has inadvertently altered consumer buying patterns, leading to a decrease in immediate demand for vehicle purchases [6][20]. Group 4: Battery Supply and Demand - The demand for batteries is intensifying, with automakers scrambling to secure supplies due to production constraints caused by battery shortages [9][23]. - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries reached 578.0 GWh from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.4% [9][23]. - The battery supply is facing pressure from both the automotive sector and the rapidly growing energy storage market, which is diverting production capacity [10][24]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to see a growth rate of approximately 3% to 5% for the year, with a cautious consensus forming around the potential for a 3% growth in 2026 as policies gradually phase out [12][26]. - Future opportunities are anticipated to arise from structural adjustments and value exploration, particularly in lower-tier markets and service consumption [13][27].