高基数下11月经济整体稳定 促消费稳投资政策有望加快推出

Economic Overview - In November, industrial, service, consumption, and investment data showed a downward trend due to high base effects from the previous year, but exports saw a year-on-year increase, indicating positive price signals [1][10] - The economy grew by 5.2% in the first three quarters, and macro policies are expected to strengthen, achieving a growth target of around 5% for the year [1][15] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - In November, the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while the cumulative growth from January to November was 6.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [2][12] - The service production index rose by 4.2% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative growth of 5.6% from January to November, also down by 0.1 percentage points [2][12] - Emerging industries and modern services are growing rapidly, with significant increases in sectors like electronic materials and integrated circuits, which grew by 22.9% and 24.6% respectively [2][12] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative growth of 4.0% from January to November, surpassing last year's annual growth rate [2][12] - The service retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.4% from January to November, indicating strong potential for service consumption [3][13] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival had a preemptive effect on consumption, leading to a temporary slowdown in November's growth [3][13] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while investment excluding real estate development grew by 0.8% [3][13] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%, and real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% [3][13] - High growth was observed in manufacturing sectors such as railways, ships, aerospace, and new energy vehicles, indicating a strengthening of new productive forces [3][13] Export Performance - In November, total goods imports and exports increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with exports growing by 5.7% and imports by 1.7% [4][14] - From January to November, total goods imports and exports rose by 3.6%, with exports increasing by 6.2% and imports by 0.2% [4][14] Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference signaled a proactive approach to boost consumption and stabilize investment, with plans for a special action to enhance consumption in 2026 [11][17] - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized the need for policy coordination to promote investment recovery and ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [11][17] - There is a focus on expanding domestic demand and increasing effective investment, with expectations for interest rate cuts and fiscal policy to significantly support consumption and infrastructure investment in early next year [9][18]