Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-12-16 00:05Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy for the banking sector by Zhongtai Securities is optimistic, focusing on high-quality regional city commercial banks and high-dividend varieties as dual main lines through 2026 [1] Group 1: Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector shows strong certainty, with expectations of stable revenue driven by excess provisioning, maintaining a provision coverage ratio above 150% by 2028, and a stable dividend payout ratio of 30%, resulting in a stable ROE of 8% [1] - The focus is on high-quality regional city commercial banks and high-dividend stocks, with infrastructure and industrial growth driving high ROE in developed provinces [1] Group 2: Credit Dynamics - Credit growth is expected to slightly decline, with new infrastructure, new industrialization, and technology finance supporting credit momentum [2] - New infrastructure loans are anticipated to rebound, while manufacturing loans will maintain resilience, and technology finance loans are expected to sustain high growth [2] - Real estate credit demand remains weak, requiring unexpected policy support for stabilization, while consumer credit is unlikely to see a significant turning point by 2026 [2] Group 3: Revenue Breakdown - Interest income is projected to recover, leading to a 2.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for listed banks in 2026, with net profit expected to rise by 2.3% [3] - The net interest margin is forecasted to decline by 2.5 basis points, with potential recovery if monetary policies are favorable [3] - Non-interest income is expected to remain stable, with wealth management supporting fee income growth [3] Group 4: Funding Analysis - The total investment in the banking sector from insurance funds, mutual funds, and wealth management is estimated at 224.4 billion yuan, potentially driving a 7.3% increase in the sector [4] - Insurance funds are projected to contribute 125 billion yuan to the banking sector, while mutual funds are expected to add 993 billion yuan [4] - Asset quality remains stable, with retail risks gradually revealing but expected to narrow in exposure [4]