Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-12-16 00:05Core Viewpoint - The communication industry is expected to experience a "lower valuation as prices rise" scenario by 2026, driven by accelerated shipments of 1.6T technology and the performance release of IDC, liquid cooling, and IoT modules [1][2]. Group 1: Communication Industry Outlook - The communication index has significantly outperformed the market, with a 64.67% increase as of November 27, 2025, ranking second among 31 sub-sectors in the Shenwan industry classification [2]. - The communication industry's PE-TTM (excluding negative values) stands at 24.6x, ranking 16th across all industries and still considered undervalued within the TMT sector [2]. - The focus remains on AI computing infrastructure and satellite internet opportunities, alongside domestic self-controllable and operator dividend opportunities [1][2]. Group 2: Overseas Cloud Giants and Investment Trends - Major North American cloud companies, including Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon, are increasing capital expenditures, with Nvidia projecting global AI investment to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of 2030, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 40% [3]. - Google is establishing a commercial closed-loop model with its TPU and Nvidia's GPU expected to compete in 2026, potentially enhancing high-speed network connections [3]. - The deployment of hollow-core optical fibers is anticipated to accelerate due to their low latency and loss characteristics, with liquid cooling expected to reach a turning point [3]. Group 3: Domestic Companies and Self-Sufficiency - Domestic giants like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent are increasing capital expenditures despite a slowdown due to chip export controls [4]. - Alibaba plans to enhance its investment beyond the previously announced 380 billion RMB over three years, focusing on domestic AI chip procurement [4]. - The development of supernodes is expected to gain momentum, with domestic companies launching related platforms [4]. Group 4: Satellite Internet Development - 2025 is projected to be a milestone year for China's commercial space development, with significant policy support and the establishment of a commercial space administration [5]. - Domestic satellite constellations "StarNet" and "G60" are expected to accelerate satellite launch schedules, driven by increasing demand in various sectors [5]. - Opportunities in the satellite manufacturing and operation sectors are anticipated as the industry matures [5]. Group 5: Dividend Opportunities in Telecom Operators - High dividend and yield configurations are becoming increasingly valuable, supported by favorable policies and a downward trend in long-term interest rates [6]. - Telecom operators have shown stable operations with increasing dividend ratios, providing a solid foundation for dividend yields [6]. - The rapid development of new businesses such as IDC, cloud computing, and AI within telecom operators is expected to enhance their growth value and potentially elevate valuations [6].