美联储2026年或放缓降息步伐 黄金、铜等品种仍具备多头配置价值

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, bringing the total cuts for the year to 75 basis points, indicating a potential slowdown in rate cuts for the following year [1][2] Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% marks the third consecutive cut this year, with a total reduction of 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2] - There was a notable dissent among the Federal Reserve officials, with three voting against the rate cut, indicating internal disagreements on the extent of the cuts [2][3] - The updated dot plot suggests a more dovish outlook, with expectations for only one rate cut in 2026 and a long-term rate forecast of 3.0% [4] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's economic projections have become more optimistic, raising GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, while slightly lowering inflation expectations [4] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and private sector job losses reported, particularly among small businesses [7] Inflation Trends - Inflation has remained moderate, with core service inflation decreasing from 4.3% to 3.5% over the first nine months of the year, indicating a potential for continued low inflation levels [8] - The overall inflation trend is influenced by the performance of core services, particularly rent, which lags behind housing prices [8] Future Policy Signals - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a pause in rate cuts but left the possibility of a cut in January open, depending on forthcoming economic data [5] - The market is currently pricing in expectations for further rate cuts, with a consensus that the Federal Reserve may lower rates to around 3% in the future [10] Global Monetary Policy Context - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle while other major central banks are on hold or pausing [10][12] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair could influence future monetary policy directions, with current speculation favoring a dovish stance [10][14]