招股两日认购寡淡，南华期货（02691）怎么了？

Core Viewpoint - The cold reception of Nanhua Futures' IPO in the Hong Kong market contrasts sharply with the high subscription rates of other companies, indicating a significant divergence in investor sentiment and highlighting concerns over the company's growth potential and valuation [1][12]. Company Overview - Nanhua Futures, established in 1996, is one of the first companies in China's futures industry and became the first A-share listed futures company in August 2019. The upcoming Hong Kong listing will make it the second futures company to achieve a dual listing in both A and H shares [2]. Financial Performance - Nanhua Futures ranked eighth among all futures companies in China by total revenue in 2024, with a revenue of 5.7 billion RMB, representing a market share of 2.1% among non-financial institution-related futures companies [3][2]. - The company's operating income is projected to grow from 9.54 billion RMB in 2022 to 13.55 billion RMB in 2024, but the growth rate is expected to slow significantly from 35.5% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024 [5][6]. Revenue Structure - The decline in revenue growth is attributed to a decrease in commission rates for domestic futures brokerage services, with net commission and fee income expected to drop by 11.3% to 542 million RMB in 2024 [7]. - The average brokerage commission rate for domestic futures brokerage services fell from 0.334 basis points in 2023 to 0.158 basis points in the first half of 2025, leading to a decrease in operating profit margin from 18.6% to 6.2% [7]. Market Positioning - The pricing and terms of Nanhua Futures' IPO have dampened investor enthusiasm, with the offering price range set at 12-16 HKD, which represents a discount of approximately 33.7% compared to its A-share price [8]. - Compared to its peer Hongyi Futures, which has a much lower H/A ratio, Nanhua's offering does not present a compelling valuation advantage for investors seeking arbitrage opportunities [9]. IPO Mechanism - The IPO employs a fixed proportion and no reallocation mechanism, resulting in a lower expected allocation for retail investors, which diminishes their participation interest [10]. - The absence of cornerstone investors in the IPO increases market uncertainty, as there is no long-term capital to stabilize the stock price post-listing [10]. Market Sentiment - The overall cold reception of Nanhua Futures' IPO reflects a broader trend in the Hong Kong market, where investors are favoring companies with high growth potential and reasonable valuations, while remaining cautious towards those with short-term concerns [12].